Sat night NBA has a huge card and I think the line makers made and error here and alot of players have noticed it and bet accordingly.
Hou comes in after a solid preformance last night where only Courtney Lee played over 28 minutes with alot of key players playing less than 25 or in K marts case 17 and some change.
The Wolves are coming back on short rest with a flight also where they basically got a gift win due to Derron Williams choking his ass off in the meadowlands. Both Rubio & Love were over 38 minutes.
On the quick turn around/no rest Hou is 6-2 ats.
In the same spot on 1/23 Hou +2 Won 107-92 at the target center. Now the line opened at 4 I got 3 and some at 2. I think Hou wins this game outright. Including this game MIn is 1-3 ats at home.
Not great stats for either club as Hou is -6 overall on the road but the number are slanted badly as during thier 3-7 start they lost by 9 to orlando, 20 @ memphis and then a -52 in 3 of 4 nights @ LAL, LAL, OKC. Since that start they are a different team and are 4-1 ATS on the road.
When these 2 teams met @ the Yota Centter on 1/30 the Wolves played a perfect game and won 120-108. In that game overall fg % 58.1 35.3 from 3 and 90% from the line. This is vs the norms of 43.1% 33.1% and 76%. Not to mention we had a Beastly sight for the first time in a while so that leave another 30 game s before another. Beasley 10-14 2/3 34 points Rubi 6/10 18pts & love 10/15 29pts. Overall shooting 65%+ 60% from 3 and playing like HOF players. The Reality Check comes tonight as the hou def allow a league avg of 44% shooting.
I think there is value in HOU winning straight up but +2 there is where there is the value.
You have some good points here, however a lot of things could be said in favor of the Timberwolves as well.
When Houston won in Minnesota earlier this year, Houston had a lot of things going in their favor. It was the first game of Houston coach Kevin McHale in Minnesota. The Rockets wanted to win for their coach who was fired in 2009 by the Timberwolves. Rockets were also in the middle of a 7-game winning stretch and they were red hot. They are not anymore going 3-3 in their past 6. How will Houston respond on the road without any emotion factor in play?
Houston had quite a soft schedule lately. Since Jan 15, other than the Spurs or Timberwolves, Rockets played against Suns, Knicks, Wizards, Bucks, Hornets, Pistons and Wizards (again). These teams have a combined record of 39-99. Impressive? Not really.
Also, Timberwolves have proved that they can play on back to back games. In their past visit to Houston, they had fought a hard battle in Los Angeles the night before. How did they play the following game vs. Houston? You already answered that question. Houston might be 6-2 ATS on 0 days of rest, but Timberwolves are 4-3 in the same situation which isn't that bad. Houston doesn't have the edge here, even with the minutes played. Both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 days.
I don't believe that this line is wrong if you compare it to the recent home lines for the Timberwolves. They were favorite by 3 vs. Indiana, by 2 vs. LAL and only underdog by 1 vs. San Antonio. Why would Houston deserve to be road favorites? Are they better than the Pacers and Lakers? Houston isn't a team who deserves to be favorite on the road, unless playing a crappy team.
You say that the reality check comes tonight as Houston defense is "pretty good" (which seems to be the assumption). However, they are ranked No. 20 in points allowed. They allow an average of 101 points per road game (48% shooting). They have been better lately as you are right with the 44% shooting overall but Minnesota has the same stats. (actually, slightly better). I don't see any edge for Houston here.
You also state that Love, Rubio and Beasley had HOF nights. Love had 29 points in this game and he averages 25 points per game this year with 13.5 rebounds. He had a normal night for him. Rubio had 18 points, but averages 11.3 pts and 8.8 assists per game. Yes, numbers were slightly better, but nothing to get crazy. Beasley was actually the only player with out of ordinary numbers, but that's not a big deal.
You state that they shot from 35.3 from 3 pt range. Their season average is 33.8. Again, not a big difference from usual numbers.
In brief, I don't see how Houston has the edge here regarding that line. Public is about 50/50 right now after 1K placed bets.
Solid performance by the Timberwolves and they cover easily the number with a 9 pt win. Beasley had a slow night, but Kevin Love (25 pts, 18 reb) and Ricky Rubio (13 pts, 11 ast) delivered a solid performance.
For the first time since 2007, Timberwolves have a .500 record. Definitely a promising future for this young team.
Sat night NBA has a huge card and I think the line makers made and error here and alot of players have noticed it and bet accordingly.
Hou comes in after a solid preformance last night where only Courtney Lee played over 28 minutes with alot of key players playing less than 25 or in K marts case 17 and some change.
The Wolves are coming back on short rest with a flight also where they basically got a gift win due to Derron Williams choking his ass off in the meadowlands. Both Rubio & Love were over 38 minutes.
On the quick turn around/no rest Hou is 6-2 ats.
In the same spot on 1/23 Hou +2 Won 107-92 at the target center. Now the line opened at 4 I got 3 and some at 2. I think Hou wins this game outright. Including this game MIn is 1-3 ats at home.
Not great stats for either club as Hou is -6 overall on the road but the number are slanted badly as during thier 3-7 start they lost by 9 to orlando, 20 @ memphis and then a -52 in 3 of 4 nights @ LAL, LAL, OKC. Since that start they are a different team and are 4-1 ATS on the road.
When these 2 teams met @ the Yota Centter on 1/30 the Wolves played a perfect game and won 120-108. In that game overall fg % 58.1 35.3 from 3 and 90% from the line. This is vs the norms of 43.1% 33.1% and 76%. Not to mention we had a Beastly sight for the first time in a while so that leave another 30 game s before another. Beasley 10-14 2/3 34 points Rubi 6/10 18pts & love 10/15 29pts. Overall shooting 65%+ 60% from 3 and playing like HOF players. The Reality Check comes tonight as the hou def allow a league avg of 44% shooting.
I think there is value in HOU winning straight up but +2 there is where there is the value.
Any thoughts ?
You have some good points here, however a lot of things could be said in favor of the Timberwolves as well.
When Houston won in Minnesota earlier this year, Houston had a lot of things going in their favor. It was the first game of Houston coach Kevin McHale in Minnesota. The Rockets wanted to win for their coach who was fired in 2009 by the Timberwolves. Rockets were also in the middle of a 7-game winning stretch and they were red hot. They are not anymore going 3-3 in their past 6. How will Houston respond on the road without any emotion factor in play?
Houston had quite a soft schedule lately. Since Jan 15, other than the Spurs or Timberwolves, Rockets played against Suns, Knicks, Wizards, Bucks, Hornets, Pistons and Wizards (again). These teams have a combined record of 39-99. Impressive? Not really.
Also, Timberwolves have proved that they can play on back to back games. In their past visit to Houston, they had fought a hard battle in Los Angeles the night before. How did they play the following game vs. Houston? You already answered that question. Houston might be 6-2 ATS on 0 days of rest, but Timberwolves are 4-3 in the same situation which isn't that bad. Houston doesn't have the edge here, even with the minutes played. Both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 days.
I don't believe that this line is wrong if you compare it to the recent home lines for the Timberwolves. They were favorite by 3 vs. Indiana, by 2 vs. LAL and only underdog by 1 vs. San Antonio. Why would Houston deserve to be road favorites? Are they better than the Pacers and Lakers? Houston isn't a team who deserves to be favorite on the road, unless playing a crappy team.
You say that the reality check comes tonight as Houston defense is "pretty good" (which seems to be the assumption). However, they are ranked No. 20 in points allowed. They allow an average of 101 points per road game (48% shooting). They have been better lately as you are right with the 44% shooting overall but Minnesota has the same stats. (actually, slightly better). I don't see any edge for Houston here.
You also state that Love, Rubio and Beasley had HOF nights. Love had 29 points in this game and he averages 25 points per game this year with 13.5 rebounds. He had a normal night for him. Rubio had 18 points, but averages 11.3 pts and 8.8 assists per game. Yes, numbers were slightly better, but nothing to get crazy. Beasley was actually the only player with out of ordinary numbers, but that's not a big deal.
You state that they shot from 35.3 from 3 pt range. Their season average is 33.8. Again, not a big difference from usual numbers.
In brief, I don't see how Houston has the edge here regarding that line. Public is about 50/50 right now after 1K placed bets.
Solid performance by the Timberwolves and they cover easily the number with a 9 pt win. Beasley had a slow night, but Kevin Love (25 pts, 18 reb) and Ricky Rubio (13 pts, 11 ast) delivered a solid performance.
For the first time since 2007, Timberwolves have a .500 record. Definitely a promising future for this young team.