Ok another 2.5+ point move I just do not understand...
I like the hou/phx under at 198 now I am seeing it as high 200.5 ..
Just please help me out with this one you have a solid team vs. a lesser oppenant who just had thier season best in points against another poor team last time out on the road phx 120-103 win against a 1-aa team in NO.
Looking at the base numbers overall phx 14-7 and 13-9 for hou 27-16 combined to the to under.
Looking closer the home road including the last games for each team that went over are phx 8-4 & hou 8-4 to the under so 16-8.
Phx on the road is avg totals of 186
Hou at home is avg totals of 193. * 42.2% OFG
Taking out the last game where phx turning into the mid 2000's suns,
Previous 4 games on the road 180 180 150 179.
Hou at home including last out vs. a tired SAS team.
Previous 4 of 181 179 204 207.
This is not a good number to start with I see possible 8-10 points of value from the opening number as would put this total at 188-192.
What am I missing I just don*t understand the steam.
I definitely value the stats that you threw out there but maybe these help the line in the direction of the over compared to yours. The Suns have won the last 7 meeting when Nash has played and they have averaged 115.7 ppg in those. Phoenix is coming on and getting consistent production from Nash. they just scored 120 over N.O. and Nash had 30. Kevin Martin is hot, averaging 29.2 in his last 6. Houston blown out by Min and SA in last 2 games, 109.5 points against average and they shot 52%.
I do see these trending up but with the travel in the nba and the basic lack of execution overall I see very few games where teams are exceeding 100. Phx also not the same team aging Nash who I cannot see scoring big pts again and his surronding cast it not even close to what it was even 2 years ago or last year. K-mart is the lost man in the nba he is a true scorer and underrate overall player playing in Sac and Hou too smaller markets along with being a quiet kid.
I appericate the info and your opinion exactly the way this forum can make us all better. For me any stats related to anything before this year as far a this years games are tossed out. Both this year and next year are going to be two different beasts.
Betting public and most sharps I think don't seem to havfe thia approach and are going with numbers like lat 10 games vs. X Y Z . With this going on I think it marks the market overreact which I am hoping is the case here.
Great points on everything! Although I do think the best use that stuff as well. I think the key is using everything you can get your hands on to make the best prediction. The only magic formula to all this is working hard. Send me a message at night about potential games sometime, possibly we can make a stronger play together, but i would have to say I'm sticking with the over. I'm kind of excited to see if this Harvard defense is going to show up tonight? and I'm on the opposite side of the movement.
Ok another 2.5+ point move I just do not understand...
I like the hou/phx under at 198 now I am seeing it as high 200.5 ..
Just please help me out with this one you have a solid team vs. a lesser oppenant who just had thier season best in points against another poor team last time out on the road phx 120-103 win against a 1-aa team in NO.
Looking at the base numbers overall phx 14-7 and 13-9 for hou 27-16 combined to the to under.
Looking closer the home road including the last games for each team that went over are phx 8-4 & hou 8-4 to the under so 16-8.
Phx on the road is avg totals of 186
Hou at home is avg totals of 193. * 42.2% OFG
Taking out the last game where phx turning into the mid 2000's suns,
Previous 4 games on the road 180 180 150 179.
Hou at home including last out vs. a tired SAS team.
Previous 4 of 181 179 204 207.
This is not a good number to start with I see possible 8-10 points of value from the opening number as would put this total at 188-192.
What am I missing I just don*t understand the steam.
Might make me pass.
Any thoughts ?
Hey hyvltge,
I definitely value the stats that you threw out there but maybe these help the line in the direction of the over compared to yours. The Suns have won the last 7 meeting when Nash has played and they have averaged 115.7 ppg in those. Phoenix is coming on and getting consistent production from Nash. they just scored 120 over N.O. and Nash had 30. Kevin Martin is hot, averaging 29.2 in his last 6. Houston blown out by Min and SA in last 2 games, 109.5 points against average and they shot 52%.
Hey Wolf,
I do see these trending up but with the travel in the nba and the basic lack of execution overall I see very few games where teams are exceeding 100. Phx also not the same team aging Nash who I cannot see scoring big pts again and his surronding cast it not even close to what it was even 2 years ago or last year. K-mart is the lost man in the nba he is a true scorer and underrate overall player playing in Sac and Hou too smaller markets along with being a quiet kid.
I appericate the info and your opinion exactly the way this forum can make us all better. For me any stats related to anything before this year as far a this years games are tossed out. Both this year and next year are going to be two different beasts.
Betting public and most sharps I think don't seem to havfe thia approach and are going with numbers like lat 10 games vs. X Y Z . With this going on I think it marks the market overreact which I am hoping is the case here.
Good Luck with your plays this evening.
HY