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NBA play and NBA just miss but worth a look..

  1. hyvltge Says:
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    Really liking this line here for ATL usually starts strong vs less opposition and should be no different this evening. the  juice is a little steep at -145  but for a single unit play I think it is worth it -1.5/-2 has value also. 

    The even STRONGER angle is actually a classic angle which is the 1st home game after a 3+ game all road trip. Not to mention still no Bargnani and most likely no Barbosa.

    Game 2 the just miss one has alot of good angles but I just can't get there cause the number has TOO MUCH VALUE...

    Denver in my numbers with all factors should be -2.5 . I might be making a cautious mistake but I will accept it as with Memphis a pk/+1 books want both sides.

    Nuggets to no star but a lot of solid JAG's.   Denver 14-6 but start slow as noted in my other trending post but strong 2nd half team with fresher legs.

    Grizz just getting back last night took the night off as it was well deserved 1st game back at the 3+ road as listed above I had the spurs small.   However with that night off it is still the 6th game in 8 days... I don't care how much in shape you are it those shots are looking for come up short.

    I think Denver will make a strong 2nd half run and win but where this opened probably had to for a even $$ I need to pass.

    Any thoughts ?



    Thanked by kaynewestmaster
    #1 - January 31, 2012 at 3:41 PM


  2. Jonathan Ma Says:


    I like the Denver game over 200. I also like the over on team totals for both teams.

    In their last 8 meetings, Denver has scored over 100pts 8-0 regardless of location. Memphis has scored over 100pts 7-1 in those same meetings.

    I think the over and over and over is the easy choice here.


    #2 - January 31, 2012 at 3:50 PM


  3. hyvltge Says:


    JM,

    I would have to respectly disagree I know the number add but the human element to me does not. Very strong number 15-4 in this situation to the over look at the season numbers. Denver is 8-2 & Mem is 7-2 to the over home the home road splits.

    Denver might get over the team total but when they played a team that was tired and slowed the pace in toronto 96-81.

    The Factors I am looking at is there are 5 straight unders for the Griz and the number was lower each game. This includes playing at GSW.  I think Den pushes the pace here and wins the game and could get over the team total the griz might just have garbage time and that could be mayo taking wild shots.

    Last  5 game trends Den 212 but Griz 174  even splitting the different it 193-196 area.

    More import to me on this game specifcally is

     37 38 38 37 30

     35 41 42 33 44

     35 42 42 34 37

    What are those ? No not bingo  lol those are the amount of actually played minutes by memphis 3 key players right now with Zach out.  Conley, Gay Gasol. 

    The trend I would normally like with the 8-0/7-1 if this was not a shortened season.   Please don't let me talk you out of a play but my look would be towards the game Under on the total.

    H


    #3 - January 31, 2012 at 4:08 PM


  4. Jonathan Ma Says:


    You make a sound argument and normally I might be swayed by it.

    But I have already come across this type of situation a few times this season where both teams are scoring lower the prior games, but have a history of high scoring matchups against each other. I skipped the first two times to see if my analysis would be correct and they were. I have taken the over on these type of matchups about 3 other times now and have cashed on all 3.

    But no reason for the two of us to go crazy trying to prove our points. Let's enjoy this game and see the end result.


    #4 - January 31, 2012 at 4:13 PM


  5. hyvltge Says:


    Absolutely 15-4 is strong and I am hoping OJ & Smith go for 35+ each and 115-110 something like that for you I got no play. 

    Exactly why I posted a reply you seem of sounds mind and realize it is just a different take and respect it for exactly as is my analysis of this game.  I am not ever gonna talk anyone out of a play I just give my take if I have one and people can use it or just scroll over it but that is the best use of a forum is to respect the opinions of one another and learn from one another.

    Good Luck.

    P.S.  from MA  also


    #5 - January 31, 2012 at 4:19 PM


  6. Jonathan Ma Says:


    I'm from California. Ma is my actual last name. 


    Thanked by Patrick, RenoChazz, Horsburgh
    #6 - January 31, 2012 at 4:33 PM


  7. hyvltge Says:


    JM was rooting for OT for you almost got there with all 3 totals.

    #7 - February 1, 2012 at 10:05 AM


  8. Jonathan Ma Says:


    Arrghh, don't remind me. Denver just landed on my sh*tlist last night.

    #8 - February 1, 2012 at 11:21 AM