Hi guys.
Here I will be posting the updates for my new NHL power rankings system. Hope you find it helpful
Top 10 for December 6: NHL Power Rankings Everyone else:
What's that?
One of the new features of Zcode system will be automatically updated daily power rankings for NHL. They show the real condition and shape of the teams based on the internal system indicators. You can compare how they differ from the traditional Standings (Place in Ratings) that you can find on public websites like Covers or NHL.com
The value of such table is huge for the professional bettor because it shows you the real CURRENT power of the team, not the traditional "general" power shown by public standings tables. let me give you example. Team A won a lot of games in October and stays on top of the division with the big amount of points, however it lost 7 out of last 10 games. The traditional standings tables will still show a high position for the team that has collapsed and currently not playing well at all giving you fake indications of the strength!
Here is example from yesterday. Despite 5th place in Public Ratings, the Boston Bruins are super hot and lead our Power rankings. Yesterday they met with Pittsburgh Penguins who are 2nd team based on the Public Ratings however in our rankings it got only 4th place and no wonder they lost to Boston.
Another example: Islanders are 27th place in public standings but their current power is 23 which is even higher than Capitals.
Of course power rankings is not the only thing that matters but it is one of the most important indicators of the team current state and power.
Hope you find it useful.
I know that some cappers do such tables or keep them "in mind" so it will be interesting to discuss the current one and hear your suggestions.
There are many parameters in the formula but the most attention is given the latest games, the streaks, goals per game and especially wins to the strong opponents and loses to the outsiders, also how many times the team failed the prediction recently and blew the obvious "sure-wins" (chicago hawks-style). I removed any parameters considering "how great the team was a year ago or 10 years ago". Only fresh results matter
I follow a lot of public power rankins like http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings and http://www.covers.com/sports/power-ranking/nhl-power-ranking.aspx but I see their main problems being weekly (this make they delayed and they get outdated too fast) and that they are created manually by someone which puts too much subjectivity in them. (example most people keep ignoring Wild and Panthers this season just because they used the be weak in the past and miss a lot by betting against them while they keep winning) or trust weak teams like Lightning (who used to be great) ignoring their current shape.. That's why I wanted to make a ranking that has no "favorite" teams.
For example Islanders are playing way better than 26-27 place they received on other ratings.
I have to agree here with Alex, rankings are subjective and without understanding the "how" methodology of assigning a rank and increasing or decreasing a ranking - I find all ranking systems only partially correct. The greatest issue with NHL is the consistency and "limited time" a team is up or down for. Example BlackHawks - have good winning runs - has a team with great ability BUT switch off for a few games at a time OR the Isles currently playing well after a horrid start and being very weak only a couple of weeks back - do u rank then off the last week (where they would rank in the top 12 - or are they still a bottom half doz. team) - A similar case can be made for the Jackets........???
With the number of games daily/weekly obviously teams switch on and off - it is trying to understand when that is going to occur - take the Blues in the above rankings - they are on a winning streak but dropping ranking....??
Team on the winning streak may drop in rating if there are a lot of lower teams gaining more during the last days
By the way, Blues dropped 2 in a row, how come they are on the winning streak? they are cooling down fast after the hot start with a new coach. (the streak goes from right to left here with the fresh games outlined in bigger font size and old games are fading away)
>>at a time OR the Isles currently playing well after a horrid start and
being very weak only a couple of weeks back - do u rank then off the
last week (where they would rank in the top 12 - or are they still a
bottom half doz. team)
Isles are still on the bottom however not that deep as other power rankings put them.
I find this system has been more than partially correct especially for close games where we have seen a "3 star underdog" rating. As someone who caps NHL fairly successfully I will be using this specific rating to guide plays for those games.
SportsPred, is there any to turn this power ranking system "inside out" so to speak so that teams are rated by how smart it is to bet against them instead of for them? For example, even if the Canucks and Wings were lower on the list than their opponents, they are 2 teams I see as extremely unwise to play against because when they show up to skate they can be offensively unstoppable. This is one of my guiding points for playing NHL well, there are certain teams that should not be played against on any streak. Maybe the power ranking system you have can work this out from the bottom up. Let me know and thanks.
The power rankings is very dynamic. Take a look how it re-adjusted just
after 1 day. Now after the first Boston loss it expects Boston to start
to cool down for a while. Minnesota once again proved they are for real and a real top team at this time (like Panthers) by beating the Sharks. Vancouver rapidly gaining power while cooled off Detroit is losing it
Hmm, not sure I agree with this at all. Take Boston for an example. Surely they have to cool down just as they cannot keep winning at a .90 rate, so I agree. But also, they lost last night without Seguin. Tyler slept in, and was subsequently scratched. In my opinion he is in Boston's top 3 forwards - and to see them move five places in either direction based off a one goal game (win or loss) on the road, without a top 3 forward in the line up, and surely some minds on managements decision to do this, seems incorrect to me.
Just my opinion, I could very well be wrong. For what it's worth Boston is tops in my rankings still.
Right, we'll see. In my opinion the team is not just a combination of skillful players which wins when all skillful players play and lose when 1 is not playing. Take Caps for example, Ovechkin and others are still there. Or take Boston Red Sox - they collapsed without losing the best players. The best pitchers and others were still there but were not playing the same. What I believe more is team chemistry so to speak which it tries to measure. By losing 1-2 to the much weaker team Boston lost much more than just a road game. It reduced its chemistry much more than we can expect but it's too early to say, the time will tell. What I am trying to say jets placed them back on earth
Sorry Sports Pred I have to disagree with your above post........
Key players affect sports in different means and comparing baseball to hockey is like comparing apples to eggs.
Take Football - many teams falter with the loss of their QB - look at the Chicago Bears & Eagles - follow the fall of the Texans In hockey if you loose your key striking/scoring power or goalie - it will not matter the "chemistry" of the team - they will falter if playing a equal of better team (can get away with playing a much lower opposition - ie Texans last week in NFL) In Baseball there are many more variables and greater depth to the teams in pitchers and batters - unlike the very "key personnel" required in some sports like football and hockey. I personally feel Baseball and basketball are more similar in having more depth and can cover key losses better.
Thank you Slowdraw for the feedback. I am not saying that injuries don't matter, I am trying to say that "chemistry" matters more... There are many examples.. Crosby was injured but Penguins were winning without him. Ovechkin was not injured but Caps kept losing and he could not score as well. When the whole team is struggling the top players are struggling as well and it is more important for me than their specific skills.
Today will be a perfect game for this - Wild team is fully injured (i think a lot of top players and goalies are injured there) but they have a winner attitude, can they win Kings ? Of course not, they will fail tells us the logic and common sense. Lets see in 3 hours.
Wild game is slightly different - you have a team at the top of their game against a lower performing team....... so can still win and I did take Wild to win today - which they should duly do. BUT if they were playing another team of equal or better form - I believe the injuries will make a difference - as I pointed out above.
Take the Steelers game tonite - QB gets injured in the second quarter - very little (1 TD) further scoring for the balance of the match (even against the Browns............. Tell me a key player like the QB does not matter - chemistry cannot get the points on the board.
Don't get me wrong - I am not having a go at your comp modelling - it looks like another helpful tool - BUT I clearly do not believe in comp modelling alone without factoring in key injuries or outs thru suspension.........
The Texans and the Bears would be favored to win and would win this weekend with their respective QB's playing - but with both out it is unlikely either will win (the Texans have a small chance playing much weaker oppostion) the bears last week could not even get one TD against very moderate opposition (granted they also lost Forte) - but the two key injuries - wipe out all semblance of FORM and any 'team chemistry'
Sorry that is my point - modelling, rankings ALL HELP but we have to account also for key personnel and the opposition and the sport - as stated above key personnel affect different sports more than others........
Thank you for the hot discussions! that's what the forum for!
>>Wild game is slightly different - you have a team at the top of their game against a lower performing team..
That exactly proves my point :) What makes them "top" team if most players are injured and a goalie is a rockie? Right, "chemistry" of the winner spirit. Same with Florida - Boston hardly can be called a lower performing team. And again, Minnesota won yesterday. So did florida. Anyway I might be crazy on this chemistry thing but as long as I am in profit that's fine with me :))
Also I don't agree on comparing NHL to football.. It's completely different sport like people said on the forum.
Top 5 9 December: (all of them keep winning and I understand that my power rankings completely disagree with traditional rankings like http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings
Here I will be posting the updates for my new NHL power rankings system. Hope you find it helpful
Top 10 for December 6: NHL Power Rankings
Everyone else:
What's that?
One of the new features of Zcode system will be automatically updated daily power rankings for NHL. They show the real condition and shape of the teams based on the internal system indicators. You can compare how they differ from the traditional Standings (Place in Ratings) that you can find on public websites like Covers or NHL.com
The value of such table is huge for the professional bettor because it shows you the real CURRENT power of the team, not the traditional "general" power shown by public standings tables. let me give you example. Team A won a lot of games in October and stays on top of the division with the big amount of points, however it lost 7 out of last 10 games. The traditional standings tables will still show a high position for the team that has collapsed and currently not playing well at all giving you fake indications of the strength!
Here is example from yesterday. Despite 5th place in Public Ratings, the Boston Bruins are super hot and lead our Power rankings. Yesterday they met with Pittsburgh Penguins who are 2nd team based on the Public Ratings however in our rankings it got only 4th place and no wonder they lost to Boston.
Another example: Islanders are 27th place in public standings but their current power is 23 which is even higher than Capitals.
Of course power rankings is not the only thing that matters but it is one of the most important indicators of the team current state and power.
Hope you find it useful.
I know that some cappers do such tables or keep them "in mind" so it will be interesting to discuss the current one and hear your suggestions.
I would need to know what the general thinking is behind placing each team where.
My personal rankings agree with a few of yours, but once we're outside of the top 8 there are probably 5 places different on a lot of teams.
I follow a lot of public power rankins like http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings and http://www.covers.com/sports/power-ranking/nhl-power-ranking.aspx but I see their main problems being weekly (this make they delayed and they get outdated too fast) and that they are created manually by someone which puts too much subjectivity in them. (example most people keep ignoring Wild and Panthers this season just because they used the be weak in the past and miss a lot by betting against them while they keep winning) or trust weak teams like Lightning (who used to be great) ignoring their current shape.. That's why I wanted to make a ranking that has no "favorite" teams.
For example Islanders are playing way better than 26-27 place they received on other ratings.
The greatest issue with NHL is the consistency and "limited time" a team is up or down for. Example BlackHawks - have good winning runs - has a team with great ability BUT switch off for a few games at a time OR the Isles currently playing well after a horrid start and being very weak only a couple of weeks back - do u rank then off the last week (where they would rank in the top 12 - or are they still a bottom half doz. team) - A similar case can be made for the Jackets........???
With the number of games daily/weekly obviously teams switch on and off - it is trying to understand when that is going to occur - take the Blues in the above rankings - they are on a winning streak but dropping ranking....??
Thanked by
By the way, Blues dropped 2 in a row, how come they are on the winning streak? they are cooling down fast after the hot start with a new coach. (the streak goes from right to left here with the fresh games outlined in bigger font size and old games are fading away)
>>at a time OR the Isles currently playing well after a horrid start and being very weak only a couple of weeks back - do u rank then off the last week (where they would rank in the top 12 - or are they still a bottom half doz. team)
Isles are still on the bottom however not that deep as other power rankings put them.
Thanked by
Minnesota once again proved they are for real and a real top team at this time (like Panthers) by beating the Sharks.
Vancouver rapidly gaining power while cooled off Detroit is losing it
Just my opinion, I could very well be wrong. For what it's worth Boston is tops in my rankings still.
Thanked by
Key players affect sports in different means and comparing baseball to hockey is like comparing apples to eggs.
Take Football - many teams falter with the loss of their QB - look at the Chicago Bears & Eagles - follow the fall of the Texans
In hockey if you loose your key striking/scoring power or goalie - it will not matter the "chemistry" of the team - they will falter if playing a equal of better team (can get away with playing a much lower opposition - ie Texans last week in NFL)
In Baseball there are many more variables and greater depth to the teams in pitchers and batters - unlike the very "key personnel" required in some sports like football and hockey. I personally feel Baseball and basketball are more similar in having more depth and can cover key losses better.
Today will be a perfect game for this - Wild team is fully injured (i think a lot of top players and goalies are injured there) but they have a winner attitude, can they win Kings ? Of course not, they will fail tells us the logic and common sense. Lets see in 3 hours.
BUT if they were playing another team of equal or better form - I believe the injuries will make a difference - as I pointed out above.
Take the Steelers game tonite - QB gets injured in the second quarter - very little (1 TD) further scoring for the balance of the match (even against the Browns.............
Tell me a key player like the QB does not matter - chemistry cannot get the points on the board.
Don't get me wrong - I am not having a go at your comp modelling - it looks like another helpful tool - BUT I clearly do not believe in comp modelling alone without factoring in key injuries or outs thru suspension.........
The Texans and the Bears would be favored to win and would win this weekend with their respective QB's playing - but with both out it is unlikely either will win (the Texans have a small chance playing much weaker oppostion) the bears last week could not even get one TD against very moderate opposition (granted they also lost Forte) - but the two key injuries - wipe out all semblance of FORM and any 'team chemistry'
Sorry that is my point - modelling, rankings ALL HELP but we have to account also for key personnel and the opposition and the sport - as stated above key personnel affect different sports more than others........
>>Wild game is slightly different - you have a team at the top of their game against a lower performing team..
That exactly proves my point :) What makes them "top" team if most players are injured and a goalie is a rockie? Right, "chemistry" of the winner spirit. Same with Florida - Boston hardly can be called a lower performing team.
And again, Minnesota won yesterday. So did florida. Anyway I might be crazy on this chemistry thing but as long as I am in profit that's fine with me :))
Also I don't agree on comparing NHL to football.. It's completely different sport like people said on the forum.
(all of them keep winning and I understand that my power rankings completely disagree with traditional rankings like http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings
5-10 places are
The rangers are climbing high, Wild still on top, Panthers lost positions.. 9-10 place: Penguins and Panthers.
Here is how our Top 5 changed:
Boston is leading again and the world seems is right again.
The Sharks and Preds are back in Top 10 while Wild and Panthers are out!