Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray 1-27-2012

I know there are a lot of non-believers in Murray out there. If you check out my profile you'll notice I successfully called and played the last 3 Australian Open semifinal matches, Azarenka, Sharapova, and Nadal. Both women's matches were three setters as well. I'm making a small play on Murray ML, he's doing great with Lendl as coach and I don't think the Djoker is over last year's late mental lapses. Murray has a ton of weapons he didn't have before, and he beat Djok twice in a row last year. The first time Novak was playing hurt and retired early, the second time he was less hurt and retired again.

I have murray at +450 to win the wimbledon.

Sorry that is not for a couple of months i guess my bad.
They are playing the french open right now.

Australian Open lol. It is the year 2012... haha just kidding

I mean Australian open jesus im a mess!
lol fuck tennis

I am on the Joker ML,  Murray has really proved nothing beating a dead tired kukushin in the 4th round and a worn out nishikori where the score line is deceptive considering he had just an insane amount of 0-30 0-40 15-30 games on Murray's serve.  Joker did not have any mental lapses last year whatsoever,  he was injured after the U.S open and got more injured when he attempted to play davis cup against aregentina( del potro).   I really dont see why people believing Murray will just become awesome all of a sudden, this guy fails in big matches like it is his job.

* I got in at -225 and would probably still take it at this line but not too much higher.

Have to stop you there. There is ZERO doubt that Djokovic was experiencing mental fatigue at the end of the year with some terrible losses, occuring after he was back in above 80% (opinion) physical shape. They said it was the pressure of holding the #1 spot through the year, playing so many matches. I'm not saying it's a bad excuse, but I think it's still lingering in this event. Cash has given the proper response for taking the Djokovic line, though I think we might be surprised at Murray's improvement here. Hope to see other people weigh in on this one, I know there aren't a lot of Tennis followers on here besides Cash and I.

Murray has always been a slow starter and prone to giving away points in easier matches. It's true that Andy has a great record against lower ranked players though. If you've been watching this major event and you don't think Murray has developed new weapons and is playing his best Tennis yet, I could never agree with you. Murray has never ripped the forehand back cross court as well as he is now. This will hopefully surprise Djok and get Murray more drop shot opportunities to tire him out. I'd say the over games for the first set is the most promising, but still sticking with Murray ML. Nadal in the final may be a tougher test but I'm expecting a Murray v. Nadal final.

The mainstream thought is that Murray fails in these matches. But in fairness he loses major finals to better ranked and better skilled players like Fed (who he has a better record against), Nadal and Novak. He is nowhere near a Tim Henman yet, the fact they are both English is the reason behind the whole Murray major jinx theory. It's absurd, the guy is on his way up not down. After the whole go back to England and deal with the girlfriend stupidity, Murray finally decided to make Tennis his life and hire Lendl. Murray is the best all around player in the game. Best return of serve (minus maybe Ferrer), though Djok has improved in that regard. Murray's cross court backhand and on the run drop shot is second to none. The guy is phenomenal and he's not long overdue for a major like everyone thinks. He will take the #3 spot soon after this open.

Not to mention I have consistently been motivating him on facebook haha.

 Those are some decent points but truth be told Joker has been returning better than Murray since the beginning of last year.

Stats dont always tell the whole story but Joker was #1 last year winning 39% of return games with Murray in second at 36%.

break points converted :  Joker - 48 %  Murray - 46%

all these stats are even more impressive since with Joker's success last year he played far  more matches against top 10 opposition.

  I'm sorry but I just can't see how Murray has any chance whatsoever in this match.  He has won 47% of his 2nd serve points while playing relative scrubs to the level of Joker( I say it drops to around 43% against joker). He has served at 62 % so lets assume against a superior player he will level out somewhere around 59%.  He has won about 83% on his first serve but considering novak is the best returner in the game and the low level of opposition he has played I will generously give him 72% on his first.  Ok now we don't know how each service game will go but lets take a sample size of 100 service points for murray since we can assume he will get at least that many.   With the numbers I conjectured that would be 59 firsts and 41 seconds.  It works out to roughly 60/100  or in essence murray winning 60% of his service points.  To win a service game without it going to deuce it has to be 4-2 which is 66% so what this means is murray will be broken quite a bit and will rarely have easy holds.

Awesome #'s you put together there for the match. They are true which is why I'm slightly surprised the line isn't getting to -300 Djok. I stupidly took Murray at -180 because I thought maybe people were catching on to something. I'm sure it will move tighter as we get close to the match but still I should've waited as people were bound to bang out Djoker. I think those return stats favor Murray even though Djoker played tougher matches. At the same time Murray does get more difficult draws because of his ranking, though I agree Djoker went further and played tougher games. That's not the reason I favor Murray with those stats though...

As I said before Tennis is all about playing the big points, as Clijsters proved before getting knocked out. Take Nadal, he plays every point as hard as he possibly can (sort of). Djokovic is also a very hard worker and will rip a winner on a scrub for 3 straight sets to go 60 every time. Murray is the most laxidazical of the top 10 players. He doesn't play every point equally, only hitting top gear in the big points versus the big competition. His traditional way doesn't help him hit top form very fast, but it's smart in the sense he keeps his weapons hidden from the big opponents until the time comes. This is why he's such a slow starter but still gets deep into the major events. I think this is gonna prove favorable for him especially in the second set, where I expect to see Murray do well on break points on both sides. By that time his weapons should be loosened and catch Novak by surprise. A lot of people love Andy and others hate him for his laid back style. He is also a whiner. I'd like to hear if you think Murray's "hidden weapons" for the big moments will sway any specific numbers for this match. Gonna be a good one I think 5 sets.

I took Murray at +180 not -180 typo.

I am not buying the hidden weapons thing, Murray has no plan B or C.  He cannot play like federer and just put the pedal to the medal.  He can win by grinding and waiting for his opportunities to attack which is exactly how nadal tried to player Joker last year and failed miserably. The problem for Murray boils down to the fact that on any point no matter how important if both guys play their best Joker is just flat out better than him at almost any aspect of the game.

Also Maybe I am wrong, but I believe Murray to have a loser's mentality which puts him behind before they even step on the court. Can a new coach change that? Maybe but I dont like to Gamble on possible effects of a coach that I cannot be sure of when there are so many tennis-related variables.

Ivan is teaching murray to pull the trigger. It might be too early to try in this match. Im still taking murray plus the points.

Well you knew you were right about the first part lol. It's really undeniable since that defines every match they played before Novak was "injured". I can't say this match will be totally different though it won't be the same. It's hard to tell on our end I mean, how are we to know if it's basically in the air. In other words how can you predict a lucky outcome that could possibly lead to a first major victory. One thing is for sure, a Murray & Azarenka first time majors would be fitting. Maybe he can dump the gf and go for her.

Murray will whine I think just mildly. He can't look up at Lendl out of respect so this will change how he jumps back into every point even if it is a placebo. He won't be Sharapova that's for sure. None of that stuff may effect the outcome. I am liking the "he's ready" slightly chance approach but also I don't see how he can be intimadted anymore after making Djokovic retire two straight matches.

Are we at game time yet and why isn't the line jumping around? This should be a big one.

I'm actually debating skipping my obligations for tomorrow and staying up to take a shot for every time Murray wins a game.

Sweet!  I just checked and ESPN3 is airing this match!  Which means I can actually watch it.

I am staying up for this one and invited a friend over,  tomorrow is my last day off before I go back to school so it's fitting I will sleep during the day.   Excited for this one obviously, and after reading your post about shots we'll take a shot of finlandia for every ace in this match.

Going to pour a glass of wine now to warm up.

Murray crawled in his shell again